Erin Reaches Category 4 Status Again, Rapidly Intensifies in the Atlantic
MIAMI — Erin is a Category 4 hurricane again, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. ET update Sunday, with sustained winds of 130 mph and tropical storm-force winds reaching out 230 miles. The storm was just under a thousand miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of Sunday evening.
Powerful Storm Expected to Strengthen Further
Erin is expected to continue to strengthen and could double or even triple in size as it moves north and west, causing rough, dangerous ocean conditions across much of the western Atlantic, the Hurricane Center said.
Rapid Changes and Astonishing Intensification
The powerful storm has undergone astonishingly rapid changes — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It quickly became a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday, before weakening and becoming a larger system on Sunday as it churns through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean.
Historic Intensification Rate
Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1.
Potential Impacts and Precautions
Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size.
Even though the hurricane is not anticipated to reach the US mainland, forecasters say rip currents will be a factor beginning Monday across Southern beaches and up to Northeast coastal areas later in the week.
Local State of Emergency Declared
As a precaution, Dare County in North Carolina — where the Outer Banks are located — on Sunday issued a local state of emergency, which includes a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island.
Heavy Rainfall and Potential Flooding
The outer bands of Erin continue to produce heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, with additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches expected across the island through Monday, according to the Hurricane Center.
Climate Change Connection
Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October.
Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world.
Early Season Strength and Activity
Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic — which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons — as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve.
It’s also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season.
Forecast and Outlook
There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September.
August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. — CNN
