Michigan supporters of RFK Jr. pose a threat to Trump in 2024
WASHINGTON — Mike Panza arrived early to a comedy benefit in support of the Kennedy campaign for president.
Clad in a Star Wars-themed shirt and waiting outside the Royal Oak Theatre in a Detroit suburb, he discussed what drew him to the only candidate in the 2024 race recognized solely by his initials — RFK Jr.
“I’d like a return to the middle of the road,” said Panza, 44. “His stance on health care is really appealing. Kennedy wants to make people healthy, he wants to make the country healthy.”
Panza, an environmental officer, may sound like a disenchanted Democrat. However, when asked who he voted for in 2020, he promptly responded: “Trump.”
Interviews with numerous Robert F Kennedy Jr supporters in Michigan reveal a paradox about the independent candidate, a major wildcard in the upcoming presidential election.
While some opinion polls suggest that Kennedy, a member of the prominent Democratic Kennedy family, poses more of a threat to Joe Biden than to Republican nominee Donald Trump, recent surveys, supporter interviews, and a deep dive into the issues that resonate with Kennedy’s base tell a different tale — Trump may have more to worry about.
“Given the current political climate in Michigan, he’s probably more detrimental to Trump,” explained Corwin Smidt, a politics professor at Michigan State University. “But it’s a very uncertain situation.”
Consistently polling in the teens or high single digits, Kennedy is the most popular independent or third-party candidate in decades, according to experts.
Although the support for third-party candidates typically diminishes closer to the election, Kennedy’s substantial backing has the potential to sway results in key battleground states like Michigan and ultimately influence the outcome of the election.
Just a short distance away from the comedy show, local Republicans in suburban Macomb County convene for a pro-Trump rally every Sunday at a bustling intersection.
This area is fiercely contested, with Trump winning around 53% of the vote in Macomb in both 2016 and 2020. However, the decline in the vote share going to third-party candidates in the last election allowed Biden to gain ground and secure a victory in Michigan.
At the rally, reactions to the Kennedy campaign ranged from amusement to mild approval among the Republicans present.
Peter Kiszczyc, a regular attendee at the rallies, expressed his support for independent candidates like Kennedy Jr and left-winger Cornel West entering the race.
“Some leftists will vote for them,” said Kiszczyc, 69. “There are aspects of RFK that I appreciate, and some that I don’t.”
However, Kiszczyc strongly supported Kennedy Jr’s position against vaccination, aligning with other Trump supporters at the rally.
After a successful career as an environmental lawyer, Kennedy led the anti-vaccine organization Children’s Health Defense, gaining significant support during the COVID-19 pandemic.
His activism has placed Kennedy at odds with most Democrats on healthcare and vaccines, particularly during the pandemic, which sparked intense protests in Michigan against the Democratic governor’s lockdown measures.
“A lot of the anti-Whitmer voters sided with Trump in 2020,” explained Smidt, the Michigan State professor.
Many Michiganders drawn to Kennedy’s healthcare and vaccine stance lean conservative, making them more inclined to support Trump.
“Democrats in Michigan are not like Democrats in California,” noted Smidt.
A number of Kennedy supporters at the theater, who paid $99 each for a comedy ticket, voiced their opposition to lockdowns, masks, and COVID vaccines.
“I think the whole pandemic was mismanaged,” said Sara White, a 43-year-old mother who opposed school closures and vaccine mandates. White, a former Democrat, voted for Trump in 2020.
The campaign event began with a campaign video created by the producer of Plandemic, a series of conspiratorial documentaries about COVID, followed by jokes targeting issues on the Make America Great Again agenda.
Following the comedy, Kennedy addressed concerns about potentially splitting the vote between Biden and Trump, emphasizing his belief in the strength of democracy.
His message resonates with Liz Glass, a 59-year-old former Democrat who voted for Biden in 2020 but now feels disillusioned with the major parties.
However, Kennedy’s stance on the ongoing conflict in Gaza may hinder his ability to attract disaffected Democrats, particularly among Michigan’s Arab-American population.
Both main candidates are attempting to portray Kennedy as an ally of the opposing side, with Trump labeling him as “Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent” on social media.
The interactions between Kennedy and Trump have been complex, with Kennedy claiming he was approached to be Trump’s running mate, a claim vehemently denied by the Trump campaign.
Despite differing opinions, Kennedy’s presence in the race could have significant implications, potentially altering outcomes in various states, according to Merrill Matthews, a resident scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation.
“At his current level of support, roughly 8 or 9 percent in the polls, Kennedy could significantly impact the outcome in several places,” Matthews concluded. — BBC
